The three key reasons why the Commission should consider that any option allowing the EU to rely on international credits to facilitate the achievement of its 2040 climate target is problematic
Europe’s industrial resilience, strategic autonomy and global climate leadership depends on a stable and credible carbon pricing framework.
18 June 2025 | 14.30-16.00 CET | Online
A new Carbon Market Watch analysis reveals the first batch of Article 6.4 international carbon credits could be overestimated by a factor of 26 – highlighting the risks of using them towards the EU’s 2040 climate target
Analysis of the available documents has found that PoA 10415, over the monitoring periods 5, 6 and 7, is likely set to issue 26 more credits than it should have according to available literature.
A new Carbon Market Watch analysis, based on currently available project data, has uncovered that the first project transitioning from the CDM to the Article 6.4 market is poised to issue an astonishing 26 times more credits than it should as compared to the values from peer-reviewed scientific literature.
Apparently, EU lawmakers are exploring four potential loopholes to weaken the target under the guise of “greater flexibility”. Under consideration are suggestions that include postponing climate action until the latter half of the 2030’s, allowing for more flexibility between EU sectors, or relying on international offsets and additional carbon removals to somehow fill the gap caused by EU inaction.
As re-confirmed by leading climate scientists in October, there is no alternative to near-term emission reductions to limit damage to our planet, ecosystems and people. However, there is a need to prepare for an environmentally sustainable removals capacity that can help reach climate equilibrium in the future.
Not only does the Climate Law not mention the different roles of biogenic sequestration by natural sinks and permanent removals, but it also fails to determine how much or which type of removals should be used to reach the net-zero target by 2050, or how much residual emissions will be allowed at that point.
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