The surplus from the first Kyoto commitment period (2008-2012: CP1) is estimated to be 13.1 billion tonnes of CO2. Russia (5.8), Ukraine (2.6) and Poland (0.8) are the largest surplus holders, followed by Romania (0.7), the UK (0.5) and Germany (0.5). The surplus is over three magnitudes higher than the estimated demand of 11.5 million tonnes (Mt) (Point Carbon, 2012).
Even without the surplus from CP1, countries will likely accumulate a surplus of 3.6 billion tonnes of CO2 by 2020. This is because developed countries have made very weak emissions reduction pledges for 2020. Together with lenient rules on the use of offsets, they will be able to emit 3.6 billion tonnes of CO2 more than they are projected to emit under business-as-usual (BAU) emissions projections until 2020 (Point Carbon, 2012).
At the international negotiations in Durban in December 2011 and Bonn in May 2012, proposals were made by the African Group, AOSIS and Brazil that would significantly restrict the use of CP1 AAU surplus in CP2. At the recent negotiations in Bangkok (August 2012) the three groups worked together to come up with a joint proposal which was presented by Brazil on behalf of the G-77 and China. The new proposal uses elements of all three proposals.
This policy brief summarises the G-77 Proposal.